Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches preview 2024

 PGA Tour rookie Jake Knapp was victorious last week in Mexico after a really impressive ball striking week for him. He ened the week 1^st for Strokes Gained: Approach where he gained over eight strokes on the field and he also finished 1^st in the field for Strokes Gained: Total, gaining over 14 strokes on the field! A pretty impressive week from the Rookie for sure.

Two places for the blog last week in Mexico made it a profitable week if you follow my staking plan! 35/1 Patrick Rodgers and 40/1 Doug Ghim were the successors for us. Lets hope for more of the same this week.

Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Players travel around 1800 miles east, across the border to Palm Beach Gardens in Florida for the newly named Cognizant Classic for this year (formerly known at The Honda Classic), home of the Bear Trap (Holes 15, 16 and 17). Another test this week played on the Champion Course at PGA National Resort & Spa, which will present the players with a stiff, windy test, with heavy bunkering throughout the course and water in play on 15 of the holes of the course.

Let’s go into the course;

Champion Course @ PGA National

-           Par 70

-          7125 yards approx.

-          Tom/George Fazio Design – plenty of Jack Nicklaus alterations throughout the years

-          Parkland style course

-          Bermuda greens – larger than usual

-          Thick Bermuda Rough

-          4 x Par 3s - range from 175-226 yards

-          12 x Par 4s - range from 365-508 yards

-          Just 2 Par 5s - both less than 560 yards

A really tough set up this week, just 6 out the last 15 winners here at PGA National have managed to get to double figures under par for the week.

Thick and penal rough surround narrow and sloping fairways which the players will have to navigate if they want an attempted shot into the large greens that they must make sure they hit in the right places to give them the best chance of scoring.

A strange set up where players are offered just two par 5s which they will have to make sure they at least birdie more times than not as the tough Par 3s that are here this week especially around the Bear Trap are some of the toughest we see all year and players will have to grind to avoid dropping too many shots as they inevitably will happen this week.

 

Previous winners and their Performance Stats

2023 Winner – Chris Kirk -14
2022 Winner – Sepp Straka -10
2021 Winner – Matt Jones -12
2020 Winner – Sunjae Im -6
2019 Winner – Keith Mitchell -9
2018 Winner –Justin Thomas -8 (Play off winner over Luke List)
2017 Winner – Rickie Fowler -12

Average stats for the past 6 winners – Average Score -10
8^th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee                 
3^rd Strokes Gained: Tee2Green
11^th Greens in Regulation                            
11^th Strokes Gained: Approach  
18^th Strokes Gained: Around the Green 
19^th Putting Average

Summary/Stats to consider

The winner this week won’t come from the best putter in the field, it is all about what the players do from Tee2Green is what will win it for them this week. With bunkers in play and water aplenty, approach shots will be vital in missing these where possible. This can be seen by the four winners between 2021 and 2018 all ranking 1^st in the field and in fact last year when Kirk finished 4^th in the field for Tee2Green performance, every player who finished in the top-7 on the leaderboard all ranked inside the top 12 for the stat that week.

The last three years, GIR stats have been astronomically good, with the 3 winners all in the top-5 for GIR that week. Looking further afield, 10 of the last 16 winners have all finished in the top-10 for GIR on their winning weeks.

Two more stats this week, I am not going to overload with stats this week as the proof is in the pudding as they say when looking at the Tee2Green/Greens in Regulation stats of the past winners. The winner will certainly have to turn up with their irons this week to perform well!

Scrambling will have to figure here this week, to navigate out of the thick rough on offer and to work the ball into the correct areas on the greens. I know I have included GIR too which kind of juxtaposes my point but even the winner will miss greens this week and will find themselves in trouble with the hazards on offer so a better than average scrambling game will be needed, shown with the top-5 players on the leaderboard the last 5/6 years have all been in the top-20 for scrambling.

Lastly of all and it is touched on above in my previous point about players finding themselves in trouble at times this week, Bogey Avoidance will be high on my list to consider. By far the toughest test so far this season they will face this week so players who can grind out results and get through tough holes where they can minimize damages will be crucial come Sunday afternoon.

 

Selections

Five each way picks again this week, all 8 places! 10pts spread across them this week, all with a solid chance and all are renowned ball strikers! Good luck all.

Cameron Young 22/1
Keith Mitchell 35/1
Rasmus Hojgaard 45/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 55/1
Ben Griffin 80/1