Mexico Open 2024 preview

A week off for me last week, between a busy week at work and prepping for a four-night holiday in Italy, the Golf last week started before I had chance to even look at the field for the Gensis Open, so apologies to those who were waiting for my blog to drop.

Hideki Matsuyama was victorious at odds of around 75/1, making him the shortest winner on the PGA Tour this year… yes, you read that right. He had been flirting with some form for the last 12 months or so, but the wrist and back injuries have always seemed to hinder his progress. It was the 2019 Masters Champs first win since he romped away to the Sony Open title at the start of 2022. With The Masters two months away, you can still get Deki at odds of around 30/1, if he keeps on striking the ball the way he did last week at Riviera, he may well enter the reckoning for me.

Onto this week then…

Mexico Open

Players this week travel into Mexico, where they will compete for the Mexico Open in the town of Puerto Vallarta at Vidanta Vallarta Golf Course.

This is only the third year the PGA Tour has been on this course, so there is still an element of guess work to be done this week with just the two years of stats to go off.

Let’s see what we have on offer at Vidanta Vallarta;      

• Par 71, 7450 yards approx.
• Greg Norman design – opened in 2015
• 5 x Par 3s, 9 x Par 4s, 4 x Par 5s
• Par 3s range from 170-226 yards
• Par 4s range from 415-520 yards, with 6/9 of them being 459 yards and above!
• Par 5s range from 548-637 yards… that right 637 yards!
• Paspalum Fairways/Rough/Greens
• Water in play on at least 12/13 hole with 4 holes runnning alongside the Ameca River

As I said, a bit of unknown territory for us this week, last year was a great watch on television with the course really showing its teeth as its firms up. It’s quite refreshing to see the Tour acknowledge that and return here for a third year running.

On the eye the course is a brute. 2 Par 3s over 205 yards, 4/9 Par 4s north of 475 yards and then 2 Par 5s well over 600 yards. Not for the faint hearted at all this week!

Various elements to deal with this week for the guys. The river/lakes that are in play, the soaring temperatures, the unusually wide fairways, the very small bunkering here to go with the long and difficult wasteland areas involving some natural shrubbery, and up by the tricky Paspalum greens there are small but tricky to read run off areas just to keep the players on their toes.

The winning score will most likely be -17 to -25 this week if the wind is low. Extremely warm and humid conditions will mean the ball will a country mile through the air and will run a heck of a long way on these fairways. Tony Finau won at -24 last year and will be here this week as favourite in his attempt to defend his title.

Previous Winners of the Mexican Open & Average Stats

• 2023 Winner – Tony Finau -24
• 2022 Winner – Jon Rahm -17

Average Stats

•          2^nd Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
•      6^th Driving Distance
•      13^th Driving Accuracy
•      2^nd Strokes Gained: Tee2Green
•      19^th Strokes Gained: Approach
•      18^th Strokes Gained: Around the Green
•      14^th Strokes Gained: Putting

 Stats to focus on to win this week

•          Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
•      Greens in Regulation/Good Long Iron play
•      Element of a good scrambler around the greens
•      Experience putting on Paspalum greens

Still a relatively new course this week, we do not know what to really expect so I am going to keep it short and simple.

• Drive it long and somewhat accurate to avoid the water.
• Hit the greens in close proximity to the hole to give yourself a good chance on these tricky Paspalum surfaces, a lot of approaches will be 175 yards+ this week so picking a guy who is consistently topping the rankings for their approaches from distance will be high on my agenda.
• Be able to get up and down and scramble well when the guys miss these greens in the roll off areas.
• And have good experience putting on Paspalum surfaces, Paspalum can be found at the Mayakoba Classic (Greg Norman Design also), Coco Beach and the Corales GC, hosts of the Puerto Rico Open and the Corales Championships. The latter 2 have more similarities to this course too.

Mexico Open Selections

Just the five each way selections this week, all took with Bet365 who offer 8 places. 1pt each way on each selection which means 10pts in total once more this week. I have three guys in this week at 45/1+, with how the PGA Tour is going in 2024 in terms of winners and their odds, who knows who will crop up and have a good week!

Nicolai Hojgaard 16/1
Course Form – 33
Recent Form – 39/31/2/7/25

Want a guy who hits it a mile, consistently gains strokes with the driver and can score heavy when the putter is hot? Nicolai is your man. He is nicely getting used to life on the PGA Tour with some consistent finishes of late and I really like his chances to solidify that full PGA Tour status here this week with a win. Again, crazy low in the odds market but try not to be put off by that!

On these long holes that are littered around this course, long iron approaches will be the key this week. Nicolai ranks 2^nd for approaches from yardages of between 175 and 200. Looks to be a great stat this week, with Finau finishing 1^st in this stat last year when he was victorious.

Patrick Rodgers 30/1
Course Form – 10/10
Recent Form – MC/MC/9/24/14
Two missed cuts for Pat at his last two starts can be ignored when he comes to a track that he has finished 10^th place in back-to-back years in 2022 and 2023. The experienced pro is a bit on the skinny side in the odds this week, the main reason for this is the field is not a good one at all for this event, with not much depth in it or any sign of golfers in the top-10 of the Official World Golf Rankings.

Mark Hubbard 45/1
Course Form – 18/51
Recent Form – 53/4/20/47/57
First time I think I have ever tipped up Mark Hubbard but here we go!

He drives the ball straight enough, ensuring he will miss the hazards this week. Anyone on Tour that goes 60% of fairways or more is going to be good with the boom stick, Mark is currently showing a 61.9% driving accuracy stat for 2024. 13^th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 3^rd for Greens In Regulation two starts back where he was 4^th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am are the exact numbers I want to see this week.

Mark has a knack of showing up at coastal/windy tracks where precision is key. All the tracks above I mentioned; El Camaleon, Coco Beach and the Corales Golf Club, Mark has registered at least a top-20 if not better in at least one visit to them.

Doug Ghim 45/1
Course Form – MC/33
Recent Form – 12/13/MC/MC
The year of 2024 did not start well for a guy that promised so much when bursting onto the scene two years ago out of the University of Texas. Two missed cuts at the Sony Open and The American Express were unfortunate, but he has followed those two poor weeks with a 13^th and a 12^th placed finish two weeks back. TPC Scottsdale and Torrey Pines North and South Courses are nothing to be sniffed at, so Ghim has definitely found something in his game. 8^th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green, 22^nd for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 46^th for Strokes Gained: Approach, 33^rd for Greens in Regulation and 18^th for Scrambling. Quality numbers that he will hopefully continue this week at Vidanta and hopefully he will be in the mix come Sunday!

S.H Kim 50/1
Course Form – 24
Recent Form – 28/31/50/MC/30
A guy who finished 24^th position here last year when I tipped him up is trending in the right direction results wise recently on the PGA Tour on some tough tracks and deep fields. He is better odds than when I tipped him here last year and in a much worse field, I fell for that trap indeed! 50^th for Strokes Gained: Total and 12^th for Strokes Gained: Around the Green are his highlights so far for the 2024 campaign, not bad reading as being in the top-50 for Strokes Gained: Total means that Kim does not do much wrong in his game. He can use his positive visit last year as good experience to elevate his game here this week.