The Players Championship 2024 preview

The Players Championship

A 4 hour drive north along the Florida coast takes the players from their stay at Palm Beach to Ponte Vedra Beach, Jacksonville, Florida. Where the elite golf continues at TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship, the unofficial 5th major in the golfing calendar in most punter’s eyes. For reference, the 2020 edition was unfortunately abandoned after round 1 due to the rise in onsite Covid cases, it was after Matsuyama shot a great first round 63.

Can the players get through 4 rounds without being victim to the short Par 3 17th? Standing at just 137 yards, players shoot into an island green over water onto a slopping green, when the wind is up the hole is an absolute brute.

TPC Sawgrass

- Par 72 – 7189 yards approx.

- 4 x Par 3s, 10 x Par 4s, 4 x Par 5s

- Pete Dye design

- Shot shapers golf course

- 3 out of 4 Par 3s, 180 yards and below.

- 5/10 Par 4s all below 425 yards

- All 4 Par 5s reachable in 2 for most players, all under 580 yards.

A classical set up once again and the headache continues for the guys this week as the stretch of tough golf courses goes on! The same amount of Par 3s, 4s and 5s we seen last week at Bay Hill and similarly this week, scoring has to come on the 4 Par 5s on offer as they again are all reachable. The 9th will take 2 excellent shots to get home in, especially if the wind is hurting. However, the other 3 Par 5s should be absolutely scorable to everyone.

Par 4s are interesting here at Sawgrass and always ‘sort the men from the boys’ if you like. Not the longest of 4s the players will see this year on tour, however typical to Pete Dye they are all full with water/deep bunker hazards and require a strategic approach. Less than driver will be taken from the tee more times than not on them, so guys with nice Strokes Gained: Off the Tee stats this year will be advantageous here.

Hitting the fairways will not be as much of a premium this week compared to last, the rough is not as penal as it was at Bay Hill. It is more about getting it in the right positions to get the best angle into the greens. Patience/bogey avoidance again will feature however.

Previous 6 winners and their average Stats

2022 Winner - Scottie Scheffler -17
2021 Winner – Justin Thomas -14
2019 Winner – Rory McIlory -16
2018 Winner – Webb Simpson -18
2017 Winner – Si Woo Kim -10
2016 Winner – Jason Day -15
Average stats for the past 6 winners – Average Score -15
13th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
4th Strokes Gained: Tee2Green
14th Greens In Regulation
19th Strokes Gained: Approach
16th Scrambling
16th Putting Average

Comparing the averages to what we saw in the preview last week for Bay Hill, player’s Tee2Green performances and Off The Tee games are even more crucial.

Summary/Stats to consider

- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

- Strokes Gained: Tee2Green

- Scrambling

- Bogey Avoidance

- Par 4/5 scoring, more focus on Par 4s

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee – As mentioned above, tee shots need to be placed correctly in order to maximise approach shots into these greens.

Strokes Gained: Tee2Green – 4/5 last winners of The Players Championship all ranked in the top 3 for their Tee2Green stat.

Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance – Minimizing mistakes on tough golf courses is always key and will be the same here this week, scrambling will need to be on point in order to do so, as players will miss greens this week at some stage.

Par 4/5 scoring – The Par 4s here are a tricky and strange set compared to other places, ranging from 302 yards upto 481 yards in total. From very scorable to tricky ones, players Par 4 scoring will need to be looked at on the season in my opinion to see how well they usually navigate them and as driver will not be used on most of them its even more important.

The Par 5s here are short yes as I said and yes players should birdie Par 5s under 580 yard a high percentage of the time, however I will be casting an eye over the averages for this year on Tour just to make sure that my guys are serial scorers on the longer holes as that’s where players need to make up their ground this week.

This week’s selections

5 tips again this week, all 1pt each way on the 8 place market on Bet365, and we are going for 3 weeks in a row where all 5 tips have made it through the 36 hole cut! Good luck all.

Justin Thomas 20/1
Viktor Hovland 22/1
Xander Schauffele 22/1
Hideki Matsuyama 30/1
Tony Fianu 60/1