Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview
Waste Management Phoenix Open
This week, we move to the desert scene of Scottsdale, Arizona where players will compete on the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale.
Not only will the players deal with desert/wasteland areas if they veer off track too far, they will also have to factor in the altitude this week with the course being approximately 1300 feet above sea level. Meaning, the ball will travel further, resulting in plenty of calculations being made by player and caddy all week.
Not only this but the players will face a raucous crowd this week with a ‘stadium’ like atmosphere throughout. In 2023, there was reportedly over 600,000 spectators that attended the course throughout the week. Most spectators are seen gathering around the Par 3 16th arena where players nerves are really put to the test in a loud and sometimes unforgiving crowd. The scene of Sam Ryder's hole in one from 2022 was a TV memory that will go down in the books, beers were thrown onto the course and the crowd was wild, a must watch clip if you didn't see it for sure. This week is also Super Bowl Sunday where the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers, so this really gets the crowd going on the final day of this tournament each year!
Stadium Course @ TPC Scottsdale
- Par 71
- 7260 yards approx.
- Tom Weiskopf original design with redesign in 2015, adding 110 yards, various hazards/bunkers adding, resurfacing of all greens and tee rebuilding.
- 4 x Par 3s - ranging from 163-215 yards
- 11 x Par 4s - ranging from 332-490 yards (6 under 450 yards, 5 are over)
- 3 x Par 5s - 553, 558 and 558 yards
- TifEagle Bermuda greens overseeded with mainly Poa Trivialis and Ryegrass…
- Plenty of water hazards/wasteland areas in play off the tee
- The last 9 winners have had odds of 50/1 or less
A pretty standard, long, Par 71 to the eye but what the players really get this week is a demanding test from Tee2Green, with a long piercing drive needed to avoid water hazards & wasteland areas, then a direct long iron game is needed to hit these tricky greens as proximity to the hole here has been historically amongst some of the hardest on tour. The severe elevation changes throughout the course will really test the guys this week off and on the greens also.
Scrambling has never been an issue here generally as the stat toppers previously aren’t commonly known for their short game attributes in the game.
The multi-blend of grass types that is on offer on the greens this week is not one we see often on tour, and if the typical climate presents itself this week (which is looking likely) they will play extra firm and will take sharp iron play to hold them in regulation and an experienced putter will be needed on these surfaces to navigate them correctly.
Previous winners and their Performance Stats
2023 Winner - Scottie Scheffler -19
2022 Winner – Scottie Scheffler -16 (Playoff winner against Patrick Cantlay)
2021 Winner – Brooks Koepka -19
2020 Winner – Webb Simpson -17 (Playoff winner against Tony Finau)
2019 Winner – Rickie Fowler -17
2018 Winner – Gary Woodland -18 (Playoff winner against Chez Reavie)
2017 Winner – Hideki Matsuyama -17 (Playoff winner against Webb Simpson)
Average stats for the past 6 winners – Average Score -19
- 10th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- 5th Strokes Gained: Tee2Green
- 4th Greens in Regulation
- 11th Strokes Gained: Approach
- 52nd Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- 6th Putting Average
- 26th Par 3 scoring
- 4th Par 4 scoring
- 8th Par 5 scoring
Summary/Stats to consider
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Recent Strokes Gained: Tee2Green & Approach figures
- Bogey Avoidance
- Putting on fast greens & good experience/course form here
Starting from off the tee. Yes, the fairways are fairly wide but missed fairway percentages are higher than your average on tour, this is due to the elevation changes on these fairways. The rough this week is not penal at all, so that will not be a worry. The worry will come on the seven holes where water is in play off the tee, and on virtually all of the holes where bordering the rough is a bunch of natural, sandy waste areas, that if found the players will have to be lucky to avoid rogue the bushes or shrubs.
This week has a real major feel too it with the courses layout, players will have to be at their top of the their games in order to compete with the best here. With this in mind, players' long game will have to be direct and their wedges will have to be dialled in if they want to succeed come Sunday afternoon. A guy that has performed really well in recent weeks is on the agenda for sure, especially in the Strokes Gained: Tee2Green & Approach numbers, there's no room for a slow start here as ground is hard to make up on tough and firm golf courses like this one, so avoiding too many dropped shots is essential, so players who have been performing well of late will be of high interest.
I always like to follow course form, and even though that five course debutants finished in the top-10 here last year, we have had a few multiple winners here in the past, numerous guys post regular top-10s and even a select group of guys who are yet to miss the cut here after two or more attempts. I am a great believer of 'horses for courses' and will sure factor this in here this week.
Not just good experience here i will look at however, but good putting weeks here in the past i will factor in for sure. As i have said, the grass blend here is unique and with the dry conditions forecast again with a constant wind, the greens will be firm, they will run fast, so a rich experience on them will be more than beneficial.
Phoenix Open Selections
Five each-way selections this week, places and bookies markets used are in brackets. Quite heavy on the front of the market due to trends here of winners in the past. Usually, I stake 10pts a week spread evenly across my selections. So, this week I advise 1pt each-way on all selections.
Jordan Speith
20/1 (5 places, Bet365)
2024 Form - 39-2
Course Form - 6-60-4-MC-MC-9-7
My headliner for this week.
Just like the winner of the Phoenix Open the last two years, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Speith attended the same University of Texas in Austin. Jordan also grew up in Texas, meaning he will be used to playing on sandy tracks like this one this week. He has certainly shown he has an eye for the place, recording four top-10 finishes in his seven attempts at winning the Phoenix Open. At 20/1, I feel it is a must play this week, especially when looking at the odds of the five above him in the market.
Jordan has played twice this year, making the cut both times comfortably with the highlight being his 2nd placed finish at The Sentry in Hawaii at the start of the year. The PGA Tour recorded stats have only measured six of Jordan's rounds so far this year. However, he doesn't seem to be doing a lot wrong across all departments of his game, see below stats so far.
- Strokes Gained: Total 19th
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee 51st
- Strokes Gained: Tee2Green 29th
- Strokes Gained: Approach 48th
- Greens in Regulation 3rd
- Scrambling 6th
- Putting Average 6th
Consistently doing what he does best, I really think Jordan is the play this week and he is my headline pick.
Sam Burns 20/1 (5 places, Bet365)
2024 Form - 10-6-33
Course Form - 6-MC-22-MC-MC
It has taken Sam a few attempts by the looks of things to get used to TPC Scottsdale, however it seems that last year all the pieces came together. He is in some hot form at the start of 2024 so it seems a good week to be on him, even if it is at 20/1. 15th for Greens in Regulation, 25th for Proximity to the hole and 20th Putting Averages are his stand out stats as he seems to be working the driver out right about now, lets hope that comes together this week as he dominated Off the Tee here last year.
Two top-10 finishes in the last two appearances puts him in great stead, especially when saying earlier that I am looking for inform players when choosing my card this week. Last week, I believe Sam would have contended if the weather didn't intervene, as the Pebble Beach Pro-am had to be reduced to 54-holes.
Eric Cole 40/1 (8 places, Bet365)
2024 Form - 14-MC-21-13-14
Course Form - DEBUT
A couple of guys at 40/1 for you now, which is a range I do really like to bet on. As, if you use the staking system I advise the 40/1 selection places, then you get your money back for the week, if it wins then it is a very smart return.
It may make me seem a bit of a liar taking a course debutant after saying earlier on how much experience on the course means this week. However, Cole has been different gravy in terms of consistency wise over the last 15 months, this was highlighted when he won the PGA Tour Rookie of the Season award at the end of last year. It looks as though he has picked up in 2024 where he left things last year. One missed cut and four top-21 finishes in five tournaments so far this year.
26th for Strokes Gained: Total, 19th for Strokes Gained: Approach, 20th for Driving Accuracy and 24th for Greens in Regulation for this year so far on Tour. That on paper seems a recipe for success indeed around Scottsdale this week.
Adam Scott 40/1 (8 places, Bet365)
2024 Form - 20-7
Course Form - 38
Now for a true legend of the game in Adam Scott. 14 PGA Tour wins, 11 wins in Europe and a Masters title in with that, some impressive record for sure and his swing has never lost that aesthetic flow it has.
Two appearances this year for Adam, a 20th last week on a windy Pebble Beach was nothing to be ashamed of. But, the result that intrigues me was the 7th placed finish on the DP World Tour at the Dubai Desert Classic. Played on a long and sandy track like this one, there are similarities for sure.
His one start on the PGA Tour last week at Pebble seen him finish 5th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in the field, 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th for Greens in Regulation. If Scott is feeling it, he will run close this week, although surprisingly he has only chosen too play around Scottsdale just the once before where he finished 38th.
Kurt Kitayama 75/1 (8 places, Bet365)
2024 Form - 39-24-29
Course Form - 23
Kurt is enjoying a steady start to his 2024 campaign, with the three solid cuts made on some tricky golf courses that do not necessarily suit his eye. We come to a venue where he will feel that he can cut loose a little off the tee, whereas he may have felt restricted the last couple of weeks at much tighter tracks. He went to University in Las Vegas, a mere 4 hours down the road so will have grown through college on tracks like this one.
A 23rd finish on his course debut here last year is nothing to be discouraged about at this intimidating track. 15th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green and 16th for Strokes Gained: Approach in 10 recorded rounds are the exactly the sort of numbers you want to see coming here this week. Anything north of 50/1 would have been a good number for me on Kurt here in Scottsdale so 75/1 is magnificent value.
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