The Masters 2024 Preview

 After a much need 2 week break from Golf previews, we are back! The decision was generally based around the run of 100/1+ guys that were winning week in week out on the PGA Tour, was a frustrating period when trying to pick out the winner for sure. And, what a week to return for in the first major championship of the year, The Masters. Lets get into it!

The best week in the golfing calendar and by far the most anticipated of the year. The Rolls Royce of Golf for punters and spectators!

Players will travel to the area of Augusta, Georgia where they will compete for the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club.

Augusta National was founded/designed in 1933 by Alister Mackenzie and Bobby Jones and The Masters has been held here ever since 1934 where Horton Smith was the first winner.

Let’s have a look to see what the players face this week;

Augusta National GC

-           Par 72, 7545 yards

-          4 x Par 3s – 155-240 yards

-          10 x Par 4s – 350-520 yards

-          4 x Par 5s – 545-575 yards

-          Dr. Alister Mackenzie/Bobby Jones design – 2021/22 course alterations

-          Ryegrass fairways/Rough, Bentgrass greens

-          Tree lined fairways

-          Massive, sloping greens

-          Sub Air system under the green complexes

A lot to take in this week at Augusta as always, not only with the hole changes that have happened in the last 3 years and how that will affect the course but predicting where the players need to attack and where they’ll need to grind their pars out will be key in choosing our lineup for this week.

The fairways are tree lined, driving will be at a premium all week to maximise scoring opportunities as the rough that lurks off these fairways can be penal. Classically, the fairway grass is mown towards the tee boxes, meaning driving distance is harder to produce than normal weeks on Tour as the ball will not bounce as far as players hit into the grain of the grass. Meaning, even though the course is at 7545 yards on paper, it can actually play more like a 7800/7900 yard course.

The greens are severely larger than the average that we see week in week out, the players will have to constantly find them in the right areas to avoid dropping shots. Beneath these greens is a Sub-Air system that organizers can use to control how much moisture are in the greens at any given stage, and come the weekend, large sloping greens mixed with the very fast Bentgrass greens is a recipe for disaster for those that aren’t confident putters or those who haven’t seen these greens before.

The runoff areas around the greens have fairways length grass on them, meaning players are constantly in 2 minds whether to chip or putt their ball if they find themselves around the green surfaces, so decision making this week will have to be clear for the players and their caddies.

2021/22 changes made at Augusta National GC

Straight after the 2021 Masters finished, work started on Augusta National providing it with several alterations to make it tougher but more rewarding for the players.

The 11^th hole was extended by 15 yards in length, tee box moved to the left, fairway widened and trees have been removed/cut back down right-hand side. This means this par 4 now measures a massive 520 yards. A real brute of a hole which proved tricky for the players to break par on last year.

Holes 9 and 10 have had the first cut of rough shortened, meaning the fairways have slightly got wider.

The 15^th hole saw its fairway completely re-laid/re-contoured, extending it by 20 yards.

And lastly, new greens surfaces were laid on holes 3, 13 and 17.

These changes however, were all done and seen for the first time at the 2022 version of The Masters. Since last year, there has been small changes as ever over the course, with the main ones coming on the Par 5 13^th hole. Removal of Azalea trees both sides of the hole will reduce an element of risk for the guys but will certainly not eliminate it on the tough hole. A new tee box has been built at the start of the hole, extending it by an extra 35 yards, so maybe we will see a fewer number of guys going for this well guarded green in 2 this year.

So, this year the same as last, the players will see some slight alterations too what they are used to normally at Augusta.

Previous winners and their Performance Stats

No strokes gained data recorded here in the past years unfortunately, but there are still some stats to delve into.

2023 Winner – Jon Rahm -12
2022 Winner – Scottie Scheffler -10
2021 Winner – Hideki Matsuyama -10   
2020 Winner (November Masters) – Dustin Johnson -212019 Winner – Tiger Woods -13
2018 Winner – Patrick Reed -15
2017 Winner – Sergio Garcia -9 (Playoff win over Justin Rose)
Averages for the last 6 winners – Score -12
15^th Driving Distance                      
20^th Driving Accuracy
4^th Greens in Regulation
12^th Scrambling
7^th Putting Average
19^th Par 3 Birdie or Better
3^rd Par 4 Birdie or Better
12^th Par 5 Birdie or Better

Stats to consider

-          Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

-          Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach/Proximity to the hole

-          Scrambling

-          Putting Average

-          Par 4 performance

 

A few words on each stat –

-          Strokes Gained: Off the Tee – even though this is never measured at The Masters, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee stats on Tour takes into consideration both distance and accuracy, both have been vital at Augusta so we will start with look at that. A more of a lean towards distance off the tee however will be the case this year.

-          Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach/Proximity to the hole – Opportunities will be hard to come by this week and is always the same on Masters week. Hitting the greens in regulation has always been a key here and will be the same this week (average of 6^th in the last 6 winners), so a look at the seasons Greens In Regulation stats will got go a miss. Proximity to the hole will also be key, along with hitting these greens in the right areas as they are so large.

-          This may seem juxtaposing putting up both Greens In Regulation and Scrambling but players will find themselves scrambling and grafting for their pars this week, so a look into the best scramblers in the game/best bogey avoiders.

-          Putting Average – getting used to these greens won’t be easy and especially when they play fast, a good experience will be a great help this week for the players.

-          Par 4 Birdie or Better Percentage – In years gone by I have focused up more on the Par 5 scoring element when building my lineups. These are still important holes as players can become unstuck on them, so taking care of them is still crucial. However, this year I will factor in Par 4 performance more into the frame. An average of 3^rd on the leaderboard for the last 6 winners is a staggering statistic to pull out.

Weather

I wouldn’t choose to insert a section every week around the weather for the upcoming event. However, this week it looks as though the weather could play a solid part in both the scoring and how the week fares.

Thursday – Small chance of Thunderstorms with a progressive chance of rain the further through the day you go. Rain is only set to be light however.

Friday – A 50% or greater chance of heavier rain throughout the day with a hurting 10-15mph wind.

Saturday/Sunday – Glorious dry days with temperatures around 28 degrees Celsius.

As you can see, a pretty bleak week forecasted at the moment to start the week… with a potential draw bias coming into play. The longer the rain falls, the softer the course will get. This means that the yardage will seem longer than ever, and that’ll suit a certain type of player for sure, especially those who can dominate with the driver.

At the weekend, the course will dry and bake out which will lead to a very interesting Sunday with Augusta hopefully playing firm and quick!

Selections

5 each way selections for you this week and I have edged on the side of course experience this week. All taken with Bet365 that are offering 8 places as they pretty much do every week nowadays. I always advise to do 1pt each way bets. 10pts staked each week across the 5 tips that I give out then. Provides us with a simple formula to track profit/loss throughout the year. Let’s land the first major champion of 2024! Good luck all.

Xander Schauffele 22/1 (3 places)
Recent Form – 5-2-25-4-54-9-3-10
Masters Form - 10-MC-3-17-2-50

Matt Fitzpatrick 35/1
Recent Form – 10-5-MC-21-MC-15-MC-14
Masters Form – 10-14-34-46-21-38-32-7-MC

Shane Lowry 50/1
Recent Form – 29-19-3-4
Masters Form – 16-3-21-25-MC-MC-39

Russell Henley 66/1
Recent Form – 4-MC-4-41-24
Masters Form – 4-30-15-11-21-31-MC

Si Woo Kim 66/1
Recent Form – 17-6-30-44-12-14-25
Masters Form – 29-39-12-34-21-24-MC